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Statistics for new Covid-19 cases are unreliable.

10 Name: Anonymous 2020-07-25 22:39
I haven't been relying on test data since about day 14. It's deeply flawed (especially in the US). But the number of deaths is fairly reliable. The majority of death data is reported from hospitals directly managing the care of patients with the disease.

I prefer to extrapolate the data on the infected rate based on the hard science of survivorship for infected and disease progression.

If we take that data and parse it back based on the progression and estimate the number of infected, the number of presumptive cases far outweighs the number of actual positive tests.

I think the disease is less serious than a 3-5% death rate, but that rate is highly variable, depending on the availability of ventilators and supportive care. 143,868 recorded deaths - still a small enough number of infected that hospital systems aren't overwhelmed yet, so assume a death rate around 1% and you get 14.3 million infected.

CDC's antibody testing suggests about 10 times the actual recorded infections due to the fact that ~40% of infected spread the virus but don't develop symptoms. Only around 5% of cases are potentially life-threatening, and about 20% are severe and possibly debilitating.

The science is evolving still, so I just assume around 10% of the population is or was infected. I'm projecting a final death toll around 1-3 million.

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